The current state of China's bearing industry in 2025

The Chinese bearing industry, as the largest production and consumption market globally, has established a complete industrial system covering the entire value chain. By 2025, the industry's total output value will exceed 242 billion yuan, and the total production volume will exceed 3 billion sets. The upstream of the industrial chain is centered around special steel, copper materials, etc., with the purity of high-end bearing steel reaching [O] ≤ 5 ppm. Ceramic ball bearings have a rotational speed exceeding 2.5×10⁶ rpm, supporting the middle processing stage. The manufacturing stage in the middle uses processes such as hot isostatic pressing and controllable atmosphere quenching to reduce residual stress in bearings by 60% and control deformation within 0.02 mm, with the precision of the intelligent grinding system reaching IT5 level. The downstream application fields cover new energy vehicles (accounting for 45%), wind power (accounting for 18%), industrial robots (accounting for 12%), etc. Among them, the single unit value of human-shaped robot joint bearings is 5,000 - 10,000 yuan. The 800V high-voltage platform of new energy vehicles has driven the penetration rate of ceramic insulating bearings to exceed 30%. The five industrial clusters have their own characteristics: Liaoning Wafangdian leads in wind turbine main shaft bearings, the eastern part of Zhejiang monopolizes 65% of the global share of miniature bearings, Jiangsu Su-Zhou-Chang area focuses on automotive bearing supply, Shandong Liaocheng supplies 70% of bearing components nationwide, and Henan Luoyang focuses on the military and aerospace field, forming a regional collaborative and differentiated competition pattern. 
I. Analysis of the Current Development Situation of China's Bearing Industry 
1. Market size: The billion-dollar market segment continues to expand. 
According to the "2025-2030 Yearly In-depth Research and Investment Potential Report on the Bearing Industry Market" released by Zhongyan Puhua Industry Research Institute, in 2025, the total output value of China's bearing industry is expected to exceed 350 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10% - 12%. China will continue to hold the position of the world's largest producer and consumer of bearings. The segmented market features the following characteristics: 
Demand for high-end bearings has soared: The market size of precision bearings (above P5 level) has exceeded 80 billion yuan, accounting for 23% of the overall market. Among them, the annual compound growth rate of high-end products such as wind power bearings and robot joint bearings has reached 25%. 
Stable growth in traditional sectors: The market share of automotive bearings is approximately 40% (140 billion yuan), and the demand for bearings in new energy vehicles has grown at a rate of 35%; the market size of industrial robot bearings has exceeded 26 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of over 40%. 
New fields create growth opportunities: The demand for joint bearings for humanoid robots has soared. Each Tesla Optimus model requires 70 precision bearings. The global market size for humanoid robots is expected to exceed 38 billion US dollars in 2025, bringing an additional 20 billion yuan of growth space to the bearing industry. 
2. Supply and demand situation: Structural imbalance and accelerated domestic substitution 
Supply-side: Simultaneous expansion of production capacity and breakthroughs in advanced technologies 
Production capacity: By 2025, China's bearing production is expected to exceed 30 billion sets. Among them, the global market share of miniature bearings will reach 65% (dominated by the eastern industrial cluster in Zhejiang Province), and the market share of wind turbine main shaft bearings will exceed 40% (dominated by Wabax and Luoxi). 
Technical breakthrough: The high-speed railway bearings developed by Luoyang LYC have passed a 1.2 million-kilometer bench test, with a fatigue life that is 1.5 times that of international counterparts; the ceramic insulation bearings for new energy vehicles developed by Renben Group have improved 3 times their adaptability for 800V high-voltage platforms, and have received a batch order from Ningde Times. 
Demand side: High-end demands rely on imports, and there is a vast space for domestic alternatives. 
Import dependence: In 2024, China imported 2.093 billion sets of bearings, with an import value of 1.929 billion US dollars, and the average price per set was 0.92 US dollars (the average export price was 0.3 US dollars per set). The domestic production rate of high-end bearings in fields such as high-speed rail, aerospace, and mid-to-high-end automobiles was less than 30%. 
Domestic substitution: Driven by policies, in 2025, the central government will set up a 10-billion-yuan special fund to provide a 15% research and development subsidy to enterprises that have broken through advanced P4-level precision bearing technology. Wuzhou New Century has expanded its business into the field of robot bearings through mergers and acquisitions, and its harmonic reducer bearings have entered the supply chain of Tesla.